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Proprietary alternatives: Game strategy and the skill-free rate Michael Shackleford aka the Wizard of Odds presents a simpler strategy with


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And thusly, blackjack is dying a slow death. The fact is that most people who play blackjack don't even play perfect basic strategy; moreover, relatively few people know how to count cards, and even fewer among them can do it proficiently enough to beat the game. In finance and investing, we have a theoretical risk-free rate of return, which serves as a benchmark against which all decisions are made. This needs to be compensated for with a lower theoretical house advantage. What's happened in the process is that the casinos are gradually and probably unintentionally eliminating any incentive to learn a complex basic strategy for a game that not only is no longer beatable, but in an increasing number of cases does not even offer a more favorable house advantage than can be found in games requiring no skill whatsoever. Source: wizardofodds. And even setting card counting aside, blackjack has indeed represented the fairest gamble in the house, with house advantages under perfect basic strategy generally in the 0. The more decisions a player has to make, the more mistakes the player will make, and the less likely it is that the player will achieve the theoretically optimal house advantage. The rise and slow death of blackjack Ever since Ed Thorp introduced the first card counting system in in his book Beat the Dealer , blackjack has led the way as the game of choice for intelligent gamblers in the table games pit. This leads to player value risk , or the risk that the player is losing more money faster than he should be. About Us. The casino is losing its mystique, and the product of gambling is maturing. Card counting in blackjack is being systematically eliminated. Who Is the Motley Fool? The best example of this is blackjack, a game which has incentivized gamblers to learn a relatively complex basic strategy by a historically being beatable and b by offering a lower achievable house advantage under basic strategy than other games like craps and baccarat. Getting Started. Retired: What Now? Bally's slot adaptation β€” approved by Nevada gaming regulators in β€” included a bonus feature in which the player would play a second round of Pong , and the player's performance affected the payout; the difference in expectation between the best player and the worst player in this bonus feature was 7 percent. Clearly, there's room for more sophisticated games. New proprietary table games are often poker-based variants, and have a range of skill requirements. At a minimum, the adjusted house advantage better known as "element of risk," which I'll explain in a minute for a game requiring skill should be lower than the 1. This house advantage is not practically achievable β€” Stephen How of Discount Gambling presents basic strategy with 23 categories of rules that get the player to 2. If a game is going to require any skill whatsoever, the game should have a lower house advantage than that being offered by games with bets requiring zero skill. Such new games are our area of interest. More recently, in October , the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement announced that it was "currently authorized to approve" and "eager to receive" skill-based game submissions for review under its New Jersey First program. Many of the most popular games currently on the market such as Three Card Poker, High Card Flush, and Crazy 4 Poker are extremely simplistic by design. Oddly, completely absent from the discussion about the demand for social and skill-based games is the area of the casino floor that historically has been both the most social and most demanding of skill. And with the great advancements in gambling knowledge and game strategy over this time period, more gamblers β€” millennials in particular β€” are more sophisticated and more knowledgeable about gambling than at any point in the history of mankind. However, the game requires 23 strategy rules to be played optimally, which gets the player to a house advantage of 4. The first big trend was the increasingly widespread use of continuous shuffling machines CSMs , which speeds up the game but also eliminates card counting. Industries to Invest In. Feb 28, at PM. In casino gambling, we have what I'll call the skill-free rate , which serves as a benchmark house advantage against which games requiring skill should be compared. But the chief reason for blackjack's exceptional popularity was the idea that the game was beatable, and the idea that blackjack represented a fair game. Mississippi Stud is a game that features a currently unique combination of scalable betting the player can bet 1x-3x the ante on three successive betting rounds, for a total of up to 10 units wagered in a single hand and scalable payoffs all wagers pay according to a pay table, resulting in some potentially large payouts. And for the most part, the modern gambler has begun to move on from blackjack. By way of comparison, the Banker bet in baccarat offers a 1. Over the past decade, casinos have taken the most extreme steps to eliminate risk from card counters in particular, as there is no fundamental reason why the casino is obligated to offer a mathematically beatable game. The Ascent. The result is that in the history of legalized and regulated gambling in the United States, blackjack has been the game that smart people play. The classic smash hit Caribbean Stud SHFL requires five strategy rules for effectively perfect play, to approximate the theoretical house advantage of 5. Ultimate Texas Hold'em is by far the most attractive of these games, with a theoretical house advantage of 2. Investing Best Accounts. Stock Market. And aside from perhaps Ultimate Texas Hold'em with an adj. New Jersey First was designed to encourage the development of casino games in New Jersey combining both the social and skill-based elements found in games like Candy Crush and Words with Friends by allowing games with such features to be fast-tracked to the casino floor within 14 days of approval, provided that the game is "submitted to New Jersey prior to or simultaneously with any other jurisdiction or testing lab. Meanwhile, the new proprietary table games are not filling the void left by countable blackjack, and are not meeting the demand for skill games. Another more recent trend is that some casino operators have moved to make a more drastic step of paying on blackjack not only on single-deck alternatives, but also on two-deck and multideck shoe games; paying rather than adds 1. But the idea that a gambler can walk into a casino and beat a game that's not intended to be beatable β€” and in a place in which the player is not supposed to win β€” is a romantic one, and has been strong enough to power the brand of blackjack for the past five decades. The advantage of these games is that virtually anybody can play these games perfectly or near-perfectly in the case of High Card Flush , even if very few people who play these games seem to actually know the strategies for them. Of the traditional games -- blackjack, baccarat, craps, and roulette -- only blackjack requires any decision-making or any skill whatsoever. In Three Card Poker, the player starts with an initial ante wager and is dealt three cards; optimal strategy is to bet with Q or better, which is all you need to know to get to the house advantage of 3. The point is, if casino operators are serious about marketing to a more sophisticated generation of gamblers β€” millennials β€” there's clearly room to offer games with both higher skill components and lower house advantages to compensate. That may be true, but it's also a copout. The next question is how well these new games satisfy the demand for skill games. This in large part explains why Caribbean Stud is in decline, particularly when compared to other new alternatives. At its peak in , there were 3, blackjack units in the state of Nevada, representing Note that the decline as a percent of all table games revenue in the table below is largely a function of the spectacular rise in predominantly high stakes baccarat play on the Las Vegas Strip over this time period.

With the rapid expansion of land-based casino gaming across the U. In Crazy 4 Poker, the player starts with two initial wagers an Ante and equal Super Bonus wagerand is dealt five down cards; the perfectly optimal strategy is to bet the maximum 3x the Ante with a pair of aces or better, and bet the minimum 1x with K-Qx or wizards of odds blackjack free the best four-card hand plays.

But how well are players being incentivized to learn more complicated strategies? Innon-traditional games represented 2. Even adjusting for an more info bet of 2.

At an average of 2. As a consequence, the tastes of the modern gambler are changing, such that there is an increasing demand for gaming activity that is more social in nature, and an increasing demand for gaming activity at least partially based wizards of odds blackjack free skill.

The simple fact is that even as gamblers continue to get smarter and smarter, there are fewer and fewer games for intelligent gamblers to play. Fool Podcasts. Wizards of odds blackjack free Are Motley. This is completely understandable, in the context that there's no fundamental obligation for the casino to offer a mathematically beatable game.

That area is the cheat sheet payout blackjack games pit. These games are strategically simple by design, and are intended to serve as lowest common denominators. In Conclusion: Incentivizing millennials with value It's tempting to want to say that millennials simply have different tastes and are more demanding of games which are social and skill-based in nature, and that's why they don't gamble as much as the gaming industry would like.

In High Card Flush, the player antes and is dealt seven cards; according to Wizard of Oddsthe correct strategy is to bet the maximum allowed when dealt four or more cards of the same suit, or a three-card flush of J or higher to J are borderlinewhich will get close to the house advantage of 2.

Let's start by first talking about the state of blackjack, the most popular casino skill game of them all. Jeff Hwang. These are typically the lowest house advantages offered by the casino without requiring any decision-making or skill. Stock Advisor launched in February of Join Stock Advisor.

Proprietary alternatives: Game strategy and the skill-free rate As blackjack continues to lose real estate on the casino floor, this real estate has in part become occupied by non-traditional, usually proprietary alternatives such as Three Card Poker and Caribbean Stud.

Part of the reason for blackjack's popularity was the fact that some gamblers like to make decisions and have some level of control over the outcome. Stock Market Basics. Basing payouts on Pong The first and most prominent interpretation of this trend thus far has been to develop video slot games designed to appeal to a video game generation.

But all of that is changing. New Ventures. Planning for Retirement. Search Search:. But as noted earlier, with the increasing adoption of blackjack with an additional 1.

These games wizards of odds blackjack free typically protected by patents and trademarks Pai Gow is a notable exception, though several modified variations of Pai Gow are patentedand are generally leased to casinos.

Personal Finance. But at the same time, the limitation of these games is that they satisfy the demand for skill games only on the most cursory level.

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Bet Per Hand Adj. The second point is a natural extension of the first.